Global growth: recovery remains in place but slowing The dominant investment “story” since 2016 has focused on the extent of economic growth coupled with the “normalisation” of interest rates in the US and eurozone following the extraordinary stimulus measures introduced in the wake of the GFC (global financial crisis in 2008). Entering 2018, the global…
One of the most crowded trades by South African investors this year has been to send money offshore. It was inspired by at least two factors and possibly more. The first was an expectation of a more robust global economy,led by gains in the United States as well as Europe. The second was pessimism about…
Investment mandates are constructed with a traditional risk spectrum in mind that places government-issued or government-guaranteed debt at the least risky end of that spectrum after cash. The past several months since the March Cabinet reshuffle in South Africa have essentially challenged investors to invest in a framework where there is diminishing assurance that government…
Two key local developments in the past month were the release of the latest iteration of the Mining Charter, followed a day later by seemingly unwarranted comments by the Public Protector on the mandate of the South African Reserve Bank. Both events proved negative for the currency, continuing an unfortunate trend of negative news that…
A weekend is a long time in South African markets. On the penultimate Friday of the month we had been examining research that suggested that the South African bond market was one of the most favourable around the world. On the subsequent Monday bond yields moved 7 points lower during the morning before reversing course…
United States equity markets surged ahead in November as the prospect of a Trump presidency held the promise of increased spending in the economy. Soon enough, investors started questioning where the money would come from – especially in a climate in which the national debt has inflated to historic highs. Furthermore, one of the nation’s…
Our comment this month seeks to distill a range of views put forward at a recent BCA (Bank Credit Analyst) Conference held in New York in late September. Speakers included Paul Volker, Larry Summers, Kevin Warsch, senior strategists from BCA, a range of external speakers and Michael Hayden, former director of the CIA. The theme…
Democracy can sometimes produce a range of unintended consequences. Without a doubt the recent referendum in the UK is one such event. The “leave” movement don’t have any real plans as to how nearly 40 years of integration will be undone within two years as provided for by Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty. The…
Investors are once again scratching their heads. By the end of January equity markets around the world signalled the potential onset of much slower global growth. Bond yields in the US declined as investors accepted that inflation was not the number one risk. The dollar weakened and this set off concerns that the world had…
Investors must understandably be concerned that news headlines once again portend doom and gloom. These negative sentiments seem to have been validated by the sharp decline in global equity markets over the past three months, a sharp decline in the dollar, a fall in the US 10 year bond yield to just above 1.5% and…
